Weekly EIA Gas Storage Report

The EIA’s report was bearish on the basis that the net injection was above the last year and the more normal five-year average for the same week.  However, it was at the lower end of the expectations and below the consensus projection for a build of about 26 Bcf.  The weather was not overly cold or hot over most of U.S. and the average weather did not seem to result in a significant amount of weather-related natural gas demand to have a solid impact on inventory injections.  The market participants initially bought the market, but prices did top out quickly.  The most significant point of the gas storage report is the fact that there is now a new all-time record level of natural gas in inventory with several more injections likely to come. In addition the surplus widened versus the more normal five-year average also.  Current inventory levels are now 224 Bcf above the five year average, shown below.

Description: Description: http://www.advancedenergycommerce.com/PubImages/28/chart7.gif

This week’s 19 Bcf net injection is above last year’s withdrawal of -1 Bcf and above the injection level for the five year average of 10 Bcf for the same week.  The injection level was above last year’s level by 20 Bcf for the same week in 2010.  Compared to the five-year average for the same week, the injection was above the five-year average for the same week by 190%.

Gas storage stocks built in the East and Producing regions, with a minor withdrawal in the West last week.  Even stocks in the East region are now above the five-year average level.  The gap has been narrowing for the past three months in the East, with the West and Producing regions also surplus versus the five-year average.

The Producing Region saw a net increase of 11 Bcf, while the East Region injected 9 Bcf. The West Coast withdrew by 1 Bcf.  The East Region is now also above the five-year average.  The Producing Region, with 1,246 Bcf of working gas in storage, remains above the five-year average and now above last year’s level for the same week.

The deficit in total stocks versus last year has switched to a surplus of 15 Bcf a positive 0.4% above last year.  All regions are now showing a surplus versus the five-year average.  Compared to the five-year average for the same week, the total stock level surplus widened to 224 Bcf and sits at plus 5.9% above the same week for the five year average.  The Consuming East region is now the only region still showing a deficit versus the five-year average.

The following chart shows the difference between current total natural gas inventories compared to last year and the five-year average.  The direction has changed over the last month or so versus last year and has broken the trend versus the more normal five-year average.  The directional change may be the pattern we see for the foreseeable future until heating-related demand finally begins to gain momentum.  As compared to last year, total inventories moved from a large deficit a few months ago to a surplus of 15 Bcf today.

Description: Description: http://www.advancedenergycommerce.com/PubImages/28/chart8.gif

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Weekly EIA Oil Inventories Report: Draws in All Three Reported Commodities and Hydrocarbon Prices are Down‏

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its weekly oil inventories report for the week ending Friday, November 4, 2011.   Comparisons of the earlier and less-followed API report, projections for this week’s EIA report, and today’s EIA report are shown below.This report is “bullish” as most inventories were materially less robust than projected.

Upon the EIA’s report release, light crude oil was trading $96.14 per barrel, down $.66 from yesterday’s close for December, largely on jitters from economic uncertainty in Europe. Natural gas for December was trading at $3.667 per MMBtu, down $.078 from yesterday’s close.

Analysts anticipate this week’s natural gas storage report from the EIA will show a net injection from as low as 17 Bcf to as high as 50 Bcf, with an early consensus around 26 to 33 Bcf. The data will compare against historical average builds including a 23-Bcf five-year-average injection and a build of 26 Bcf for the same week in 2010.

EIA Gas Storage Report: 92 Bcf Net Injection and Prices are Widely Mixed‏

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just issued its weekly natural gas storage report for the week ending Friday, October 21.   The EIA reported a net 92 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection into underground storage caverns amid expectations for a net build in the upper 80s Bcf.   The build will compare with a five-year average injection of 47 Bcf and a 74-Bcf injection reported for the same week in 2010.

At the time of the EIA’s report release, the near month of November NYMEX natural gas futures price (expires today) was trading $3.549 per MMBtu, down $.041 from yesterday’s close and falling.  December light crude oil was trading $92.65 per barrel, up $2.45 from yesterday’s NYMEX settlement on favorable news in Europe solving its sovereign debt issues.

According to the EIA, working gas in storage was 3,716 Bcf as of Friday, October 21, 2011.  This represents a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week.  Stocks were 28 Bcf less than last year at this time and 158 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,558 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 25 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 44 Bcf.  Stocks in the Producing Region were 114 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,067 Bcf after a net injection of 41 Bcf.  Stocks in the West Region were 19 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 7 Bcf. At 3,716 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

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Crude Oil Build, Gasoline and Distillate Draws and Prices are Down‏

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its weekly oil inventories report for the week ending Friday, October 21.  Comparisons of the earlier and less-followed API report, projections for this week’s EIA report, and today’s EIA report are shown below.This report is “bearish” as crude oil inventories were greater than projected.

Upon the EIA’s report release, light crude oil was trading $92.16 per barrel, down $1.01 from yesterday’s close for December. Natural gas for November was trading at $3.631 per MMBtu, down $.027 from yesterday’s close.

Analysts anticipate this week’s natural gas storage build from the EIA will show a net build in the upper 80s billion cubic feet (Bcf.) The build will compare with a five-year average injection of 47 Bcf and a 74-Bcf injection reported for the same week in 2010.

Weekly Oil Inventories Reports for the Week Ending Friday October 21, 2011
Million Barrels API Report Projections EIA Report
Crude Oil
2.7 1.7 4.7
Gasoline 0.2 -2 -1.4
Distillate -1.8 -1.5 -4.3

Weekly EIA Gas Storage Report: 97 Bcf Injection, at Expectation, and Prices are Mixed‏

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just issued its weekly natural gas storage report for the week ending Friday, September 30.  They reported a net 97 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection into underground storage caverns amid expectations for a hefty build in the high 90s-Bcf that will compare to a 74-Bcf five-year-average injection and a build of 84 Bcf for the corresponding week in 2010.

At the time of the EIA’s report, the near month of November NYMEX natural gas futures price was trading $3.55 per MMBtu, down $.01 from yesterday’s close. November light crude oil was trading $80.49 per barrel, up $.80 from yesterday’s NYMEX settlement. Natural gas futures prices are now so remarkably low that one major future event (e.g. small gas storage injection) could push price up for months ahead.  …

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Oil inventories materially less robust than projected

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its weekly oil inventories report for the week ending Friday, September 30. The EIA’s report is attached. Comparisons of the earlier and less-followed API report, projections for this week’s EIA report, and today’s EIA report are shown below. This report is “bullish” as inventories were materially less robust than projected.

   Weekly Oil Inventories Reports for the Week Ending Friday September 30, 2011

Million Barrels

API Report

Projections

EIA Report

Crude Oil

-3.1

2.0

-4.7

Gasoline

-5.0

0.8

-1.1

Distillate

-2.0

0.5

-0.7

Upon the EIA’s report release light crude oil was trading $78.12 per barrel, up $2.43 from
yesterday’s close for November. Natural gas for November …

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Near Today’s NYMEX Session Close, Gas Futures Prices are Holding Near Even‏

Month

Commodity

Last

Change

Prior Settle

Updated

Nov-11

Natural Gas

$   3.614

$  (0.003)

$       3.617

1:09:38 PM CT

Dec-11

Natural Gas

$   3.918

$  (0.010)

$       3.928

1:09:39 PM CT

Jan-12

Natural Gas

$   4.082

$  (0.007)

$       4.089

1:09:47 PM CT

Feb-12

Natural Gas

$   4.101

$  (0.007)

$       4.108

1:09:47 PM CT

Mar-12

Natural Gas

$   4.067

$  (0.005)

$       4.072

1:09:38 PM CT

Apr-12

Natural Gas

$   4.056

$  (0.005)

$       4.061

1:09:38 PM CT

May-12

Natural Gas

$   4.082

$  (0.011)

$       4.093

1:09:28 PM CT

Jun-12

Natural Gas

$   4.125

$  (0.007)

$       4.132

1:09:28 PM CT

Jul-12

Natural Gas

$   4.168

$  (0.008)

$       4.176

1:09:06 PM CT

Aug-12

Natural Gas

$   4.192

$  (0.008)

$       4.200

1:09:28 PM CT

Sep-12

Natural Gas

$   4.193

$  (0.010)

$       4.203

1:09:28 PM CT

Oct-12

Natural Gas

$   4.232

$  (0.009)

$       4.241

1:09:07 PM CT

Nov-12

Natural Gas

$   4.389

$  (0.014)

$       4.403

1:08:11 PM CT